Interim managers will be pleased to learn that business leaders are predicting the UK economy will exit the recession in the fourth quarter of 2009. But growth will remain subdued and GDP is unlikely to have reached pre-recession levels by the end of 2011.
The latest economic forecast from the CBI predicts economic growth of 0.5% in the last three months of the year, helped by consumers bringing their spending forward to beat the VAT rise.
Subsequent growth in the first two quarters of 2010 will be weak at 0.3%, but this should strengthen as the global economic recovery gathers pace, businesses rebuild stocks and household spending recovers. Growth in the range of 0.5% to 0.7% is expected to be maintained through to the end of 2011.
As a result, the CBI predicts annual UK GDP growth of 2.5% in 2011, following 1.2% in 2010. However, despite two years of economic expansion, UK GDP will still not have returned to its pre-recession level by the end of 2011, illustrating the depth of the current recession.
John Cridland, CBI Deputy Director-General, said the outlook is brightening as the global economy finds its feet, although there is no sign of a clear driver of strong economic growth.
In the spring many staff will face another cycle of wage freezes, and job losses will continue rising until the Autumn, he added.